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Cheltenham to Aintree: Why Festival Form Holds the Key to Grand National Week Winners
Historic study reveals proven Cheltenham performers often peak again on Merseyside — and Stumptown could lead the charge
With the 2025 Cheltenham Festival now in the rear-view mirror, attention turns to the Randox Grand National Festivalat Aintree, where many of racing’s biggest names will reappear just 20 days later. But far from being drained by their Prestbury Park exertions, the data shows that many horses actually improve when switching to the flatter, speed-favouring Merseyside track.
Now, a major study offers compelling statistical evidence to back up what seasoned punters have long suspected — Cheltenham form not only holds up at Aintree, it often improves.
Study Confirms: Cheltenham Horses Thrive at Aintree
Covering 30 years of data from 1990 to 2020, the study examined over 3,000 runners who competed at both Cheltenham and Aintree in the same spring season. The findings are remarkable:
- 54.2% of horses improved their finishing position at Aintree
- Only 34.3% performed worse, while 11.5% finished in the same position
- On average, horses improved their placing by 1.13 positions from Cheltenham to Aintree
- 67.5% of Cheltenham winners finished in the top three at Aintree, with 31% winning again
- In the 2010s, 33.7% of Cheltenham winners won again at Aintree — up from 18.7% in the 2000s
While fatigue is often feared, these statistics undermine the assumption that Cheltenham takes too much out of horses. Instead, the evidence suggests that form, class, and confidence carry forward — making recent Festival performers strong betting propositions.
Aintree’s Hidden Danger: Completion Rates
One caveat from the data: while horses tend to improve their position, Aintree carries a higher risk of non-completion. The DNF rate at Aintree is 18.8%, compared to 10.1% at Cheltenham.
This spike is largely due to challenging fences, especially in races run over the Grand National course, such as the Topham, Foxhunters’, and the National itself.
Nonetheless, for those who complete, the signs are overwhelmingly positive — and punters can use this trend to identify strong betting angles for Aintree.
Cheltenham-Aintree Doubles: Proof in Recent Seasons
Looking at recent Cheltenham-Aintree campaigns further strengthens the case:
🏆 2021
- Shishkin and Chantry House (both Henderson-trained) won at Cheltenham and then at Aintree
- Belfast Banter added the Novices’ Hurdle to his County Hurdle success
🏆 2023
- Corach Rambler: From Ultima glory to Grand National winner
- Constitution Hill: Champion Hurdle to Aintree Hurdle domination
- Sire Du Berlais: Back-to-back wins in the Stayers’ and Liverpool Hurdle
🏆 2024
- Inothewayurthinkin: Won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham, then the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree — and later added the Gold Cup to his growing haul
2025: Who’s Poised to Do the Cheltenham-Aintree Double?
🟩 Stumptown
Target: Randox Grand National Handicap Chase
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
After an emotional win in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase, Stumptown could be the value play of the Grand National. Crucially, his Cheltenham win doesn’t carry a penalty, and Tiger Roll won the same double in 2018 and 2019, making this path a proven one. His stamina and jumping ability could make him Cromwell’s ace in the pack.
🟨 Wonderwall
Target: Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase
Trainer: Richard Spencer
The St. James’s Place Foxhunter Chase often highlights horses to follow into Aintree. On The Fringe did the Hunter Chase double in 2015 and 2016, and Its On The Line went close last year. Wonderwall, a strong stayer with a turn of foot, could follow in their hoofprints.
🟧 Heart Wood
Target: Melling Chase
Trainer: Henry de Bromhead
While Fact To File ran away with the Ryanair, Heart Wood’s second-place finish shouldn’t be underestimated. De Bromhead has now found his ideal trip, and the Melling Chase has a history of being won by horses who placed at Cheltenham. He’s one to watch if he lines up.
🟦 Jonbon
Target: Melling Chase
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Despite being outpaced in the Champion Chase, Jonbon is on track to try again at Aintree — a race that has served Henderson well with previous stars like Sprinter Sacre, Remittance Man, and Finian’s Rainbow. The stats support the switch, and Jonbon remains a formidable force on better ground.
🟪 Lulamba
Target: Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Just edged out in the Triumph Hurdle, Lulamba fits the profile of juveniles who bounce back at Aintree. Five Triumph winners have followed up in Liverpool since 2006, while placed horses often fare well again. If he lines up, he’ll be hard to oppose.
Final Word: Follow the Form – Cheltenham Class Carries
With data, trends, and recent history all aligning, punters heading to Aintree would do well to keep faith with Cheltenham Festival performers. Horses that emerge from Prestbury Park with credit — even if not as winners — often go on to greater things at Aintree.
Whether it’s a potential Grand National fairytale with Stumptown, a redemption arc for Jonbon, or another Henderson juvenile showing their mettle, Cheltenham form is more than just relevant — it’s a roadmap to success on Merseyside.
So when the tapes go up at Aintree, remember: those who starred in the Cotswolds might just be ready to steal the show all over again.
