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How to pick the winner of the 2022 Randox Grand National
The most famous horse race in the world, the Randox Grand National, gets underway at 5:15pm on Saturday and we take a look at previous winners of the steeplechase and have picked out certain factors which may help when choosing a potential winner in 2022.
Age
Choosing a potential winner for the Grand National is a notoriously difficult task but there are a few factors which could help you in your quest. Indeed one way in which you can whittle down the 40-strong field is to exclude runners below the age of 8 and above the age of 11, such as Anibale Fly and Noble Yeats.
Each of the last nine winners of the Grand National were within the ages of 8 and 11, plus the current top five in the betting all fit the bill in this regard, these including Delta Work and Any Second Now.
The last winner of the Grand National above the age of 11 was 12-year-old Amberleigh House back in 2004 and there haven’t been any seven-year-old winners in 82 years.
Weight
Since 1945 just seven runners have won the Grand National with a weight in excess of 11st 5lb, including Many Clouds which triumphed in 2015. This isn’t good news for the likes of Any Second Now and Delta Work which will be burdened with 11st 7lb and 11st 8lb respectively.
This gruelling contest tends to favour those with a lower weight, all-but-three of the last nine winners of the marathon carrying no more than 10st 13lb. Based on this trend, Enjoy D’Allen comes into the frame with 10st 10lb.
Experience
The Grand National is a race unlike almost every other and experience is hugely important in this contest, five of the last nine winners of the National having either won or been placed over the testing Aintree National fences of managed a finish in the top six in the Scottish, Irish or Welsh Nationals or the Ladbrokes Trophy. This would appear to boost the chances of Farclas, Burrows Saint, Any Second Now and Minella Times, the former three coming in fifth, fourth and third respectively in the 2021 Grand National.
Form
Based on the trends, you really don’t want to be backing a horse going into the Grand National on the back of some shaky form, all-but-one of the last nine winners of the contest having finished in the top three one or more times in their three starts before the Aintree marathon. Delta Work and Any Second Now each won on their last starts and Escaria Ten came in second in the Bobbyjo Chase. Snow Leopardess has triumphed in her last three although Minella Times has made just two starts since her Aintree exertions, the 2021 Grand National winner being pulled up and falling since then.
Cheltenham Festival Form
Of the last nine winners of the Grand National, four appeared at the Cheltenham festival the same year with the famous Tiger Roll having won the Cross Country Chase, one runner running in the Gold Cup and one taking part in the Pertemps Final.
Delta Work saw his form boosted when edging past Tiger Roll in the 2022 Cross Country in testing conditions while Gordon Elliott’s Mount Ida contested the Mares’ Chase at Prestbury Park. This trend also puts Run Wild Fred into the frame after he finished second behind Stattler in the National Hunt Chase.
Our Verdict
This is a close one to call but all things considered we’ll be siding with Burrows Saint in this one. He came in fourth off the same mark in the 2021 Grand National and age is certainly on his side, as is his burden of 11st 4lb which certainly isn’t insurmountable. On the whole he has performed well this season and his Grand National experience stands him in extremely good stead.
