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Scottish Grand National 2025: Trends and Talking Points Ahead of Ayr’s Marathon Test
The jumps season rolls on with another major staying contest as Ayr prepares to host the 2025 Coral Scottish Grand National on Saturday, 12th April. While the Aintree Grand National understandably grabs the lion’s share of attention, the Scottish equivalent stands as a prestigious race in its own right – and a critical late-season highlight.
Staged over four miles, the Scottish Grand National features 27 fences and a maximum field of 30 runners. Although it’s slightly shorter than its Merseyside counterpart, the emphasis on stamina, jumping accuracy and race positioning remains just as vital. It’s a true test of endurance and nerve for both horse and rider, and fortune often plays its part amid the hustle and bustle of such a competitive field.
Last year, the race was won in tremendous fashion by Willie Mullins’ MacDermott at 18/1 – a first Scottish National success for the Irish maestro. That followed his Grand National win at Aintree with I Am Maximus, underlining Mullins’ increasing impact on Britain’s long-distance chases. It’s clear the Irish powerhouse is intent on dominating both sides of the Irish Sea.
Beyond the individual stories, the Scottish Grand National is rich in history – first staged in 1858 – and offers a goldmine of trends for punters seeking an edge. The race has shown distinct patterns in terms of age, recent form, weight carried, and even previous experience at Ayr.
Here’s a closer look at the key statistics that define recent renewals:
Notable Trends from the Past 21 Runnings:
All 21 winners had run within the previous 57 days
19 of the last 21 finished in the top six on their previous start
18 of 21 came from different stables (i.e. not repeat wins by stablemates)
18 carried 11st 1lb or less to victory
17 were aged eight or older
17 had fallen or unseated no more than once in their career
16 were French- or Irish-bred
15 had placed in the first three last time out
15 had previously won over a trip of at least three miles
14 aged between eight and ten
14 last raced between 30–57 days before the big day
14 carried 10st 9lb or less
14 were sent off at double-figure odds
13 were drawn from the first seven in the betting
8 arrived on the back of a win
7 had previously scored over fences at Ayr
6 had already won over a marathon trip of 3m7f or more
Only 3 of the past 21 favourites (or joint-favourites) have won
There are also notable trainer patterns. Christian Williams has sent out two of the last three winners, while Paul Nicholls has landed the prize twice in the past eight years. Nigel Twiston-Davies remains the most successful current trainer, with three wins in the race. On the jockey side, Sam Twiston-Davies has steered home two winners. Interestingly, the last outright winning favourite dates all the way back to Young Kenny in 1999.
The average SP of the winner over the last two decades? A rewarding 19/1 – a clear reminder that this race regularly produces big-priced results.
With the 2025 renewal rapidly approaching, punters will be weighing up long-distance form, proven stamina, and the ever-important ability to stay out of trouble in big fields. Will another Irish raider follow in MacDermott’s footsteps, or will a British-trained outsider rise from the pack? Either way, Ayr’s marathon will once again serve as a thrilling final chapter in the spring staying season.
